Desktop Trends

Desktop CPU Forecast Chart

Reasonably speaking

Nothing of this sort shows up on the pricing forecast, of course. Intel is confident enough to feel they can easily react to the market when the need arises. Even if they are unwilling or unable to put out 700MHz by the end fo the year, they command enough of a price premium on Pentium III CPUs to maintain a commanding position when dealing with AMD. Let's hope that all changes with K7!

Pentium III back to Socket?

Of course, the other surprising news is that Pentium III WILL be making an appearance on Socket-370, as Slot-1 is phased out of Intel's desktop plans. If you think about it, the Slot design suits sever/workstation systems well, as they have to deal with multimegabyte caches. However, it was always somewhat of a kludge for desktop systems, being a sort of poor-man's Pentium Pro. With the arrival of Coppermine, the PCB needed to hold backside L2 cache is no longer needed, and thus only contributes to added manufacturing cost, size, and hackability.

What about Celeron?

On the opposite spectrum, the Celeron processor will continue to do well into 2000. The most-asked question, "Will Celeron move to 100MHz FSB" will have to be answered with a resounding "no," at least not until H1 2000. With the P3's 133MHz bus delayed, there's no reason to allow Celeron to catch up so fast, is there?

What we can look forward to in the near future is the introduction of the Celeron 500MHz at 66MHz in late-July or early August. Meanwhile, the Celeron low-end will be taken up by the 366MHz, as 300 and 333 fade from the market. Additional good news is that Celeron CPUs will never break the $200 mark upon entry into the market. By November, the 400MHz will represent the entry-level machine.

When can we kiss the P2 goodbye?

The answer to that question appears to be near the end of the year, in the October/November timeframe. Pentium II machines and processors will of course still be available for purchase for some time after that, but Intel's aggressive pricing of the Pentium III is a deliberate effort to herd the P2 to greener pastures. As you can see, no desktop Pentium II machines will be manufactured on Coppermine .18um.