Apple’s September Surprise

In September, Apple is going to announce something so cool that even Apple dropped a hint. A “future product transition” that would result in gross margin being significantly lower. Apple’s CFO specifically stated:

“We have some investments in front of us that I can’t discuss with you today where we are going to be delivering state-of-the-art new products that our competitors just aren’t going to be able to match and as a result, I would see gross margins being about 30%, and that’s all I can tell you at this point.”

He’s just told R21 as much as we need to know. First of all, Apple’s profit margins:

Original Core 2 Duo iMac: 44%
iPhone 3G: 56%
iPod touch: 90%.

The Macbook/Macbook Pro are already the best selling notebooks on college campuses and most of the rumors floating on the ‘net have been on multi-touch screens or some fancy glass trackpad with a display along the lines of the Optimus keyboard. While the MacBook Pro is certainly due for an upgrade, we find both to be unlikely.

As cool as multi-touch is, a multi touch screen along the lines of Microsoft Surface, has no role on a laptop at this time. Gamers are always going for higher DPI mice due to ergonomics – you can move your cursor further for a given physical movement without having to give up the micro-precision needed for aiming. A multi-touch laptop wouldn’t make sense because it requires you to move your hand too much for normal activities. Would pinching a window on the monitor to be easier than just clicking on the minimize button? No. It works on the iPhone because you’re dealing with a smaller physical space.

A tablet PC “gets away” with asking the user to move their hand a lot because the 1:1 stylus makes digital art easier (where you do want the ability to move your hand across a large surface area) and because the applications in which tablet PC’s are helpful (point of sale, anything strictly menu driven) doesn’t require a significant amount of input. That is to say, a multi-touch screen offers so little user benefit for a substantial increase in cost. The artists who want a tablet Mac can go 3rd party or go with a Wacom Cintiq, and the rest of us will enjoy our cheaper laptops. Multi-touch is awesome for a trackpad though. If you’re pointing at an image and now use the pinch gesture to zoom in/zoom out, it’s faster to do that because you don’t have to lift a finger and have finer control over the amount of zooming than a scroll wheel or keyboard shortcut would offer. You actually get an improved user experience with a multitouch trackpad and that’s why Apple includes it on the Macbook Air and Macbook Pro.

What about the trackpad? Also bogus. The OLED based Optimus keyboard looks cool but it offers very little advantage. This isn’t like Microsoft’s Sidebar technology which allows you to see and do stuff with the notebook closed. Can you name any instance when it’s advantageous to have a low resolution display at the trackpad instead of displaying that exact same information on the main monitor itself? Some sort of status monitor? Some sort of contextual menu? Would that justify the added cost and increased warranty repair? Hardly. Some sort of digital loupe? The viewing angles would be off.

What about a docking trackpad that can be removed and act as a standalone iPod Touch? No way. You’re talking about the company that has convinced consumers to buy a new monitor everytime they buy a new PC (iMac) and what would happen if you misplaced the trackpad and wanted to use your computer.
What about a quick launcher that gave you instant access to a few key applications? Maybe, but it would hardly be a killer app.

I will be shocked if Apple includes a screen-in-a-trackpad in the next Macbook. Either they’ve come up with some application that is so cool that R21 hasn’t thought of, or the utility is so small and somehow Apple interface designers completely ignored the concept of making useful applications.

Behind ever rumor is a grain of truth.

The glass trackpad is the silliest idea R21 has ever heard. It’s cool for the Apple fanboys, but it just doesn’t make sense to use it as a laptop trackpad because there’s never a time where you have an open notebook and want a second small resolution screen that’s obscured by your fingers and will be viewed askew. So how did this rumor get started? Our guess is manufacturing. Suppose Apple is ordering a bunch of these glass trackpads from contract manufacturers in Taiwan and China, what could they be using it for? What product could use that technology in an Apple-friendly way?

A remote control for a TV? No way, margins are even less than 30%. Try a digital camera.

The “Apple Digital Camera” is a rumor that has been brought up before. People will point to the Apple Quicktake and 2002 had a rumors of a prototype Apple digital camera with an iPod like 5GB hard drive. This time, R21 really believes it can happen.